War-torn Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not intended for the outside world," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".